Abstract
The illicit production of methamphetamine from the precursor chemical pseudoephedrine (PSE) in clandestine laboratories poses a public health risk for our communities and a financial burden on law enforcement. Previous work has shown a strong relationship between PSE sales and clandestine labs in Kentucky. The purpose of this project is to extend the study to Illinois and Louisiana and refine the model by adding additional explanatory variables and control variables. Regression models predicting clandestine methamphetamine lab incidents using 2011 to 2012 county-level data for Kentucky, Illinois and Louisiana were calculated. Explanatory factors include PSE sales (in grams), population density, percent of adults with a high school diploma and percent population unemployed. Data sources include the National Precursor Log Exchange (NPLEx), the National Clandestine Laboratory Seizure report data received from the Drug Enforcement Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime in the United States statistics and the Census Bureau American Community Survey. Results indicate a strong positive relationship between PSE sales and clandestine labs (p<0.01). Counties with a more highly educated population (p<0.05) on average have fewer lab while a more rural population on average is associated with greater number of labs (p<0.05). Individually, sales of PSE are strongly correlated to labs in both Kentucky and Illinois, but not Louisiana. PSE sales have a strong relationship to clandestine labs. Counties with greater sales of PSE have a greater number of clandestine labs, controlling for counties with no labs reported. These findings are an important addition to our previous work providing evidence for a strong association between PSE sales and clandestine labs in multiple states over multiple years and have important policy implications as states struggle with policy options to reduce methamphetamine production in their communities.
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