Abstract
At present particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution represents a serious threat to the public health and the national economic system in China. This paper optimizes the whitening coefficient in a grey Markov model by a genetic algorithm, predicts the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and then quantifies the health effects of PM2.5 pollution by utilizing the predicted concentration, computable general equilibrium (CGE), and a carefully designed exposure–response model. Further, the authors establish a social accounting matrix (SAM), calibrate the parameter values in the CGE model, and construct a recursive dynamic CGE model under closed economy conditions to assess the long-term economic losses incurred by PM2.5 pollution. Subsequently, an empirical analysis was conducted for the Beijing area: Despite the reduced concentration trend, PM2.5 pollution continued to cause serious damage to human health and the economic system from 2013 to 2020, as illustrated by various facts, including: (1) the estimated premature deaths and individuals suffering haze pollution-related diseases are 156,588 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 43,335–248,914)) and six million, respectively; and (2) the accumulated labor loss and the medical expenditure negatively impact the regional gross domestic product, with an estimated loss of 3062.63 (95% CI: 1,168.77–4671.13) million RMB. These findings can provide useful information for governmental agencies to formulate relevant environmental policies and for communities to promote prevention and rescue strategies.
Highlights
The acceleration of urbanization, extensive development of the economy, and ignorance of environmental protection can cause an astonishing deterioration of atmospheric quality
Zhao et al [13] evaluated the economic impact from illness and, by utilizing amended HCA, premature death incurred by PM10 pollution in Beijing for 2012, and they found that economic loss was 583.02 million RMB
This requires the use of pollutant concentrations to calculate labor force loss and medical expenses, which uses the proposed dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess economic impacts of haze pollution
Summary
The acceleration of urbanization, extensive development of the economy, and ignorance of environmental protection can cause an astonishing deterioration of atmospheric quality. Many epidemiological studies have reported harmful health effects (e.g., respiratory diseases, cardiovascular disease, and other deadly diseases) due to air pollution [1,2,3,4], especially the pollution by small particles like fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). In China, due to the rapid development experienced over the past three decades, haze pollution has increased to an intolerable level, which concerns the government and local officials, and all citizens of the country. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 5102; doi:10.3390/ijerph16245102 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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