PM2.5-Associated Health Impacts of Beehive Coke Oven Ban in China.

Abstract

Historically, beehive coke ovens (BCOs) were extensively operated in China and emitted large quantities of pollutants, including primary PM2.5 and secondary PM2.5 precursors, and other climate forcers. Although these ovens were legally banned in 1996 by the Coal Law, the process of phasing them out took over a decade to accomplish. Based on historical operation data derived from remote sensing images, temporal trends and the spatial distribution of the emissions of various pollutants from BCOs were compiled and used to model the resulting perturbation in ambient PM2.5, population exposure, and PM2.5-associated adverse health impacts. Historically, PM2.5 originating from BCOs affected a vast region across China, which peaked in approximately 1996 and decreased afterward until the ovens' final elimination in 2011. According to the results of a supply-demand model, emissions from the BCOs would have continued to increase after 1996 if they had not been banned. As a result, national average PM2.5 attributable to BCOs in 2014 would have been more than three times as high as that in 1996. It was estimated that the cumulative number of premature deaths associated with BCO-originating PM2.5 from 1982 to 2014 was as high as 365 000 (95% confidence interval 259 000-402 000). The number would have nearly tripled if BCOs had not been banned and halved if the ban had been implemented immediately after the regulation was in force, suggesting the importance of legislation implementation.