Plutonium - Burn It or Bury It?: Using the Richardson Model, and Its Non-Linear Extensions, as a "Decision Tool" in Helping to Choose Between the Use and Disposal of Surplus Nuclear Weapons Materials

Abstract

Public consideration of nuclear-security matters, such as what to do with surplus fissionable materials from retired nuclear weapons, is often overwhelmed by the pro- or anti-nuclear energy biases of the discussants. Clearly a ground for such discussion is required which is explicitly independent of such biases. The Richardson Model and its linear and non-linear extensions link the onset of war to the "interactions" between the participants in the international system. These "interactions" include competitions for resources as well as military and economic components. The disposal of surplus nuclear weapons materials contributes to both the resource and the military aspects of these "interactions". Hence the proper disposal method might be linked to international security: the best option is that which maximizes the stability of the system, as determined by a Richardsonian model. Several simple models are developed and investigated in this paper. Admittedly, these models do not do full justice to the complexities of the real world problem.. But they do allow simple answers which should provide clues to the eventual development of more realistic models as well as some possibly unbiased insights into how to deal with the real problem. The simple models of this paper indicate that it may be better to "burn" rather than "bury" the fission components of surplus nuclear weapons.