Abstract
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the steps needed to contain the ongoing Ebola crisis in West Africa, the timeline required to achieve control, and the projected burden of mortality. A new mathematical model of Ebola virus transmission allows assessment of the feedback between new cases and hospital demand under a range of plausible intervention scenarios, including ramping-up of treatment facilities over time and increasing the number of individuals seeking hospital treatment through outreach and education. Results suggest that the outcome of the epidemic depends on both hospital capacity and individual behavior, and the model highlights the conditions under which transmission might have outpaced hospital capacity, and projects possible epidemic trajectories into 2015. See Drake et al. Image Credit: NIAID, Flickr
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