Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs

Solveig Glomsrød,Knut H Alfsen,Taoyuan Wei

doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9378-2

Abstract

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO2 emission intensity in China towards 2020.

Highlights

The fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), took note of the CopenhagenS
Comparing annual average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth over the period 2005–2020 in our policy scenario (SN1) and the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), we find that the impacts of the Copenhagen Accord on average annual GDP growth rates are very small, less than one tenth of a percentage point
United States of America (USA), European Union (EU), Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation, as well as the Rest of the World (RoW) all experience a slight decline in growth rates

Summary

Introduction

The fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), took note of the Copenhagen. «We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science, and as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2°Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity.»(§2) Following this decision, major players have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or carbon intensity by 2020.1 Several developed countries have provided quantified economywide emissions targets for 2020, while many developing countries have offered nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) for the same year (UNFCCC 2010) often in the form of intensity targets (carbon dioxide (CO2) or greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP).. For this purpose we use the GRACE model developed at Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo (CICERO) for integrated air quality and climate policy analysis (Aaheim and Rive 2005)

The GRACE model

Results and analysis

Energy intensities: history and pledges

Comparison with other studies

Conclusions