Abstract
One type of sports competition between two teams consists of a sequence of plays where the winner is the team with the most points scored. A win probability is a calculation during the game which expresses the likelihood of the home team winning the contest. Win probabilities are helpful in understanding the ebb and flow of the game, and in assessing which plays had the largest impact on the outcome of the contest. This article reviews the definition, construction, and application of win probabilities in a number of sports including the use of this concept in measuring the contribution of individual players. WIREs Comput Stat 2015, 7:316–325. doi: 10.1002/wics.1358This article is categorized under: Statistical Learning and Exploratory Methods of the Data Sciences > Modeling Methods
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