PLANUNGSPROBLEME DER WIRTSCHAFTLICHEN ENTWICKLUNG

Abstract

SUMMARY The main problem of underdeveloped countries consists in an inflexible productive structure which makes it difficult to adopt to changes in world markets. There are three important instruments to improve their flexibility. The first instrument are the investments - not investments in general (this is only of interest in the context of stabilization policies) but specific investment projects or programs. The author distinguishes directly and indirectly productive investments, which require separate investment criteria. For the latter especially the fact ought to be taken account of that they cause large future current expenditures, therefore absorbe future resources ahead of creating them. The second instrument is the budget. In underdeveloped countries its task is not only to finance the public services but also to accumulate savings. It becomes the link between the public and the private sectors as well as between directly and indirectly productive investments, and, by this, the main instrument for development. The third instrument is the balance of payment policy: avoidance of balance of payment crises and efficient use of export receipt. Its further tasks consist in creating public savings—a task that is very often underestimated compared to the infant industry argument or the directing of import and export. In the last part the author scrutinizes a special problem of planning a specific investment project: shadow or accounting prices (wages, interest rates, exchange rate). The theory implies that all investments are directly productive, which ist too simple. When shadow prices are adopted, the budgetary consequences are neglected. E.g. a project is chosen on grounds of low shadow wages, nevertheless market wages have to be paid. The difference is a charge on the budget. The possibilities of productive investment are reduced, the composition of directly and indirectly productive investments altered in favour of the latter, and economic growth diminished. The author therefore concludes that the adoption of shadow prices calculated from a static system might prove disastrous to future growth. The solution would consist in realizingall investment projects the rate of return of which would exceed the interest rate of, say, the World Bank (more or less opportunity cost of capital), and limiting investment in indirectly productive activities to what the budget can stand, in particular to an amount that does not foreclose future savings.