Abstract

The eastern Canadian Subarctic and Arctic are experiencing significant environmental change with widespread implications for the people, plants, and animals living there. In this study, we integrate 10 years of research at the Nakvak Brook watershed in Torngat Mountains National Park of Canada, northern Labrador, to assess the sensitivity of ecological and geomorphological systems to regional climate warming. A time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index indicates that the area has undergone a significant greening trend over the past four decades. Analyses of shrub cross sections suggest that greening has been caused by a combination of rapid establishment and growth that began in the late 1990’s and coincided with warmer growing season temperatures. Recent (2010–2015) vegetation change has been subtle and heavily moderated by soil moisture status. Plant canopy height is greater in wet areas and has an insulating effect on ground surface temperatures during the winter, a consequence of snow trapping by shrub canopies. Observations of subsurface conditions indicate that the study site is best characterized as having discontinuous near-surface permafrost. The importance of subsurface conditions for above-ground vegetation depends on the geomorphological context, with plants in wet areas underlain by fine materials being the most likely to be growth-limited by permafrost, thus being potential hot-spots for future change. With the expectation of sustained climate change, loss of adjacent sea ice, and proximity to the forest-tundra ecotone, it is likely that the Torngat Mountains will continue to be an area of rapid environmental change in the coming decades.

Highlights

  • Rapid changes have occurred in the distribution (Tape and others 2006; Myers-Smith and Hik 2017) and abundance (Sturm and others 2001b; Elmendorf and others 2012b) of Arctic shrubs in recent decades as climatic limitations on their establishment, growth, and productivity have eased

  • Average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values increased from 0.218 to 0.328 between the first (1985–1994) and most recent (2010–2019) ten-year periods of observation, and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicated a significant difference in cumulative distribution functions (D = 0.260; p < 0.001) as values became more positive over time

  • Applying an interdisciplinary lens and mixedmethods approach, this study provides a multivariable assessment of environmental change at the Nakvak Brook research basin located in the low shrub tundra ecotone in Torngat Mountains National Park, northern Labrador

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Summary

Introduction

Rapid changes have occurred in the distribution (Tape and others 2006; Myers-Smith and Hik 2017) and abundance (Sturm and others 2001b; Elmendorf and others 2012b) of Arctic shrubs in recent decades as climatic limitations on their establishment, growth, and productivity have eased. Shrubs are able to respond quickly to improved conditions through vegetative reproduction and growth (Chapin III and others 1995; Zamin and Grogan 2012), and are often associated with declines in moss and lichen species through shading and litter production (Chapin III and others 1995; Cornelissen and others 2001; Joly and others 2009; Chagnon and Boudreau 2019) Such changes in plant community dynamics have cascading implications for local animal populations; for instance, shrubification may provide new habitat for bird species (Mizel and others 2016; Whitaker 2017), but may be detrimental for caribou which primarily forage for lichen in the winter (Joly and others 2009; Schmelzer and others 2020). Caribou in particular can have a dynamic influence on shrub establishment and growth (Andruko and others 2020) as browsing pressure is linked to overall herd size

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