Planning-stage estimation of highway project duration on the basis of anticipated project cost, project type, and contract type

Abstract

At the planning phase of project development, highway agencies seek to estimate the time duration of project implementation for purposes such as construction planning, contract administration, and workzone impact assessments. This paper investigates the estimation of highway project duration on the basis of variables known at the planning phase such as planned cost and project type, and contract type. Project types are pavement construction, rehabilitation, maintenance, traffic facility installation, and bridge construction. The contract types considered are fixed-duration and fixed-deadline contracts. Using a variety of model specifications, the paper presents mathematical relationships between highway project duration and the magnitude of the planned cost and project type, and contract type. The paper shows that all other factors remaining the same, the duration of fixed-date deadline contracts generally exceed that of fixed-duration contracts; and higher levels of planned cost translate non-linearly into greater project duration. The developed models can help project administrators provide improved estimates of project duration and thus could help reduce project time delays. Also, the models are useful in forecasting workzone durations, a key aspect of workzone user cost estimation.