Planning the resilient city: Investigations into using “causal loop diagram” in combination with “UNISDR scorecard” for making cities more resilient

Abstract

The world is changing and facing new challenges such as the effects of climate change, natural disasters, population growth, and urban densification. The rampant development means that urban areas as the most populated area are vulnerable to many challenges and losses. One way to address this is to reduce the effects of disasters by enhancing the performance of cities, in other words increasing their “resiliency” to make them withstand the impact of unpredictable stresses and shocks. The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative method to identify effective policies and plans, as well as to test alternatives to improve city resiliency. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) approach in combination with a quantitative resilience measurement tool, developed by theUnited Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR Scorecard) was used for planning and prioritisation of resilience works. The Auckland region in New Zealand was chosen to demonstrate how the concepts and tools found within the study can be applied within the urban context. This study used quantitative data from applying the Scorecard. Then, through data analysis, the usage of system dynamic, causal loop diagram approach, was investigated and recommendation were then provided. The projections provided evidence that CLD offers insight and creates shared understanding about resilience system and how it works. It is through rational debate that a deeper understanding is developed, and resilience system is improved. The diagram provides a visual map of connection among resilience indicators that offer a clear mental model of the resilience system. In enabling a visual output, 'what if' scenarios could be projected to visualize how certain changes made in one indicator (for example, by imposing a policy or plan) can make changes (positive and negative) in other parts. The CLD revealed that all resilience indicators within cities are highly interconnected and that building resilience takes multi-organisational efforts. Therefore, improving resilience in a specific weak area can be achieved with indirect actions by targeting the roots (cross-sectoral). Such intervention then optimises the benefits of the response and spread to a broader area within a cost-effective manner. Nevertheless, it is also important to note that our knowledge in all science is limited and any modelling based on this has flaws and limitations that will need further investigation.