Planning the Growth of a Metropolis

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study investigating the growth of metropolitan London from the second half of the nineteenth century to the present. A high-resolution longitudinal land-use database, assembled from historical Ordnance Survey maps, is used to trace the patterns of land development in a 200 km2 area of West London from 1875 to the present. The land-use database is then employed to develop a cellular automata model, which explores the impact of key forces shaping the patterns of metropolitan growth. The analysis highlights the interplay of three critical factors: (1) the preurban spatial structure determined by the patterns of settlements and infrastructure predating the expansion of the metropolis; (2) the urban code representing a set of consistent rules that describe the spatial interaction of land uses with elements of the built environment; and (3) the mixture of planning and development policies advanced by public and private initiatives related to infrastructure investments, density regulation, and open space preservation. Contrary to the popular view rendering the growth of London as an outcome of uncoordinated private initiatives and market-based forces, the study advances the argument that planning played an important role in shaping the patterns of metropolitan expansion. Our analysis reveals, however, that the impact of planning was strongly conditioned by the elements of the preurban spatial structure and the mechanisms of the urban code.