Abstract
Local government’s need for accurate assessments and projections of the fiscal consequences of development is well established and persistent. This analysis demonstrates the use of a geographic information science-based planning support system to project residential growth and the fiscal consequences of development. The cornerstone of the analysis is a spatial index of urban form which captures clustering and dispersion of the built environment. A regression model indicates the spatial index to be a statistically significant determinant of expenditures on policing services in the study area. Modelled future growth was spatially and temporally disaggregated to indicate future residential growth at different planning horizons. Spatial indices were calculated for these planning horizons and incorporated into the econometric model for ceteris paribus evaluation of the effect of change in urban form on public service expenditures. Results demonstrate planning informed by PSS modelling has the potential to realize savings on public service expenditures.
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