PLANNING SETTINGS MAIN GAS WITH REGARD TO STOCHASTIC COMPONENT TIME TREND

Abstract

Rational Software main transport natural gas in a reduction of gas mains load is accompanied by the increasing complexity of technology and the improvement of traffic management systems gas. An important role is given to the development of the system of dispatching management, one of the areas which is to implement the results of research evidence of system performance based on advanced mathematical models and technologies. Applied Information Systems are increasingly used in the problems of effective use of the equipment in the main gas transport. Priority scientific and technical challenge of PJSC «Gazprom» is to improve the technology of gas trunk line. In this regard, one of the most promising areas of research is the creation of mathematical models and methods of forecasting the volume of pumping natural gas through main pipelines for solving rationing problems and dispatching management planning. Developed earlier prediction technology focused mainly on the stationary conditions and the use of specific norms of consumption of natural gas for its own needs of compressor stations. Modern conditions of functioning of the gas transmission system characterized by a decrease in pumping volumes of natural gas each year. In this paper we propose a method that allows to predict the volume of transit of natural gas through MG, taking into account the seasonal, daily and hourly unevenness of gas consumption (harmonic oscillation with random amplitudes and random phases). To monitor the daily and seasonal hours the dynamics of gas consumption shows the possibility of presenting the dynamics of the volume of pumping natural gas through pipelines on the basis of time-series visualization in the form of fractal surfaces, which allows you to select components of the random time series.