Planning for tourism under uncertainty: lessons from Macao, China (2002–2022)

Abstract

ABSTRACT Drawing on the perspective of governance and planning uncertainties mentioned in Abbott 's 2005 and 2009 articles, namely, “Understanding and managing the unknown: The nature of uncertainty in planning” and “Planning for complex metropolitan regions: A better future or a more certain one?” , and several urban planning theories, this study examined the types of planning uncertainty that Macao (China), experienced from 2002 to 2022, and the planning approaches it adopted to tackle the uncertainties. A mixed research method was adopted. Fifteen qualitative face-to-face interviews with key informants were conducted, and secondary sources of data, such as government plans, reports, and statistics, were also reviewed. Results indicated that environmental, casual, value, organisational, and chance uncertainties emerged at three different stages of Macao's tourism development. To deal with these uncertainties, a variety of planning approaches were adopted, including guided flexible planning, comprehensive planning, communicative planning, and adaptive learning. This study contributed a novel perspective to examine tourism planning uncertainties over time. It emphasised the importance of a flexible planning approach in tackling uncertainties of growing complexity. The findings also shed light on how planners can strengthen their capacity for tackling uncertainty.