Planning for potential increases in disbursements and risk of managed funds conditional on desired short-term performance levels

Abstract

ABSTRACT As increasing disbursements (such as costs and fees) and risk (such as portfolio risk and leverage risk) may affect managed fund performance, analysts go beyond risk-adjusted return measures for performance appraisal. A methodology that assesses performance in a multidimensional framework is data envelopment analysis (DEA). A variant of DEA is inverse DEA. In this paper, inverse DEA is applied to determine output (investment income and benefit payments) targets for a given fund to perform at a desired efficiency level when increase in disbursements and risk at known levels is envisaged. An output-oriented inverse DEA model assuming variable returns to scale is formulated with theoretical underpinning. The proposed modelling framework ensures that, when an input augmented fund with estimated output targets is included in the observed fund set, the frontier of best performance established with the observed fund set does not change. The inverse DEA model is applied to a sample of Australian superannuation funds to demonstrate how a given fund may obtain pathways to improve its performance under different input-augmentation scenarios. As different pathways suggest feasible output targets, fund managers may find them valuable in forward planning.