Planning for More Resilient and Safer Cities: A New Methodology for Seismic Risk Assessment at the Urban Scale, Applied to a Case Study in Italy

Abstract

Recent seismic events and the damages related to them have highlighted the crucial role of urban planning in coping with the fragility and intrinsic vulnerability of cities. The paper presents a methodology for assessing seismic risk at an urban scale, expanding from a single-building investigation to an urban-scale analysis by adopting an empirical method for assessing the vulnerability of the urban fabric. Data collection and analysis have been conducted through the Geographic Information System (GIS). The methodology has been applied to the Italian city of Castelfranco Emilia, in the Emilia-Romagna region, where the current regional urban planning law is guiding municipalities towards the development of strategies mostly oriented toward the retrofit of the existing building stock and the overall regeneration of the urbanized territory, in accordance with the target of no net land take by 2050. The novelty of the method stands in the transposition of approaches born in the civil engineering and protection domains to the urban planning sphere, stressing the importance of developing urban planning instruments which are well-integrated with vulnerability assessments and, therefore, able to successfully incorporate risk considerations in the decision making.