Planning for groundwater management using visual MODFLOW model and multi-criteria decision analysis, West–West Minya, Egypt

Abstract

This study presents a planning model to assist decision-makers in implementing proposed sustainable development policies based on the government's development schemes. It focuses on the exploitation of groundwater from the Eocene aquifer in the West–West Minya region in the Western Desert of Egypt as one of the new development areas. The visual MODFLOW model is applied to serve as a base model for the study area's local modeling and assess the impact of operating scenarios on the groundwater aquifer. An optimal scenario for groundwater sustainability is achieved by considering the water meter consumption in the newly reclaimed area with a value of 6 m3/d for each acre to irrigate 3953.68 acres; the maximum drawdown of about 60 m is formed after 9700 days of simulation. The GIS multi-criteria analysis model is used to assess the impact of groundwater deficiency as a result of reclamation. Results of the groundwater model are merged as input layers in multi-criteria decision analysis, which include groundwater salinity, groundwater levels, aquifer transmissivity, and aquifer storativity. The prospective groundwater zones are categorized into most suitable (1584 km2, 9.9%), suitable (4592 km2, 28.7%), good (4784 km2, 29.9%), moderate (1488 km2, 9.3%), and unsuitable (3552 km2, 22.2%). It is recommended to optimize levels of groundwater withdrawal from the current or future drilling wells to achieve a balance between the use and the protection of water potential.