Planetary defense governance: Thirty years of development and the multilateral future

Abstract

Planetary defense (PD) is a well-established program that refers to activities and actions to predict and mitigate a potential impact by an asteroid or comet on the Earth. States are discussing possible deflection scenarios based on their scientific knowledge and technology capacities at the UN-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) and at the General Assembly. Even though PD is being formally recognized as an inherently global challenge requiring international cooperation at the level of UN COPUOS, the current state of the global PD governance depends on particular space-faring states and their willingness to fund and execute planetary defense missions. Political representatives consider PD mostly as scientific efforts, respectively efforts conducted mostly by the community of scientists. However, this would change the day an asteroid on a collision course is detected and without solid PD governance in place, behavior of decision-makers could be contingent leading to the possibly unpredictable supranational policy above national security agendas but with inherent implications to the national security of sovereign states. This situation has historical reasons. This paper, firstly, studies the evolution of PD governance from the 80s up to today, to identify the reasons for the current state-oriented (or inter-governmental in the case of ESA) PD governance. Then, secondly, I propose a multilateral PD security regime as an answer to the current state of PD governance. As the threat of being hit by an asteroid is a low probability, high impact natural phenomenon involving the whole Earth, it requires a multigenerational, financially sustainable, and scientifically beneficial planetary-wide program that covers all without exception and does not cause national security concerns of any sovereign state. As asteroids do not discriminate, the planet Earth should consider establishing a multilateral planetary defense security regime to provide security assurances to all, develop trust in the related technology development that all can oversee, and provide an environment to which all entities contribute with their scientific and industrial capacities.