Abstract
This study highlights how the mortality plateau in Barbi and colleagues can be generated by low-frequency, randomly distributed age-misreporting errors. Furthermore, sensitivity of the late-life mortality plateau in Barbi and colleagues to the particular age range selected for regression is illustrated. Collectively, the simulation of age-misreporting errors in late-life human mortality data and a less-specific model choice than that of Barbi and colleagues highlight a clear alternative hypothesis to explanations based on evolution, the cessation of ageing, and population heterogeneity.
Highlights
Late-life plateaus observed in the 1904 cohort were compared to the effect of simulated, low-frequency age-reporting errors introduced into log-linear models of mortality fitted to the age range of 65–80 used in Barbi and colleagues [1]
Age-misreporting errors generated late-life plateaus at frequencies below 1 in 500 when introduced into the ‘best-estimate’ 65- to 80-years-old model presented by Barbi and colleagues (Fig 1A and 1B)
The apparent size of the late-life plateau in Barbi and colleagues [1] is characterized in comparison to a ‘best-estimate trajectory’ model, fitted to data from a specific age range of 65–80 years
Summary
Barbi and colleagues correctly highlight an alternative hypothesis: the potential for age misreporting and cohort blending errors to generate artefactual late-life plateaus. Late-life plateaus observed in the 1904 cohort were compared to the effect of simulated, low-frequency age-reporting errors introduced into log-linear models of mortality fitted to the age range of 65–80 used in Barbi and colleagues [1]. Age-misreporting errors generated late-life plateaus at frequencies below 1 in 500 when introduced into the ‘best-estimate’ 65- to 80-years-old model presented by Barbi and colleagues (Fig 1A and 1B).
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