Plagues in the 16th century in northern England: a metapopulation study

Abstract

Plagues in northern England in the 16th and 17th centuries appear to have different patterns and dynamics from the wave-like spread of the Black Death and from the radial, or from the apparently erratic and unpredictable, movement of the epidemics in central and southern England that were caused by the movement of infectives over substantial distances. Usually the spread of the infection in northern England can be monitored from the records and, frequently, the infections appear to move southwards along well-defined corridors in the northeast from the Scottish borders and Northumberland. The Pennines, which form the backbone of England, effectively divided the Northern Province into eastern (Northumberland and Yorkshire) and western (Cumberland, Westmorland and Lancashire) halves, each with different terrains, and an epidemic disease was brought across by infectives travelling on the roads through the gaps. Thus, the Northern Territory acted as a separate metapopulation, semi-isolated from Scotland and the rest of England. As we have seen, the inhabitants of northern England had been much occupied in defending themselves from raids and cattle stealing by the Scots, and Carlisle in the northwest and Durham in the northeast were major defensive centres. The terrain, particularly to the west of the Pennines, was very different from that of central and southern England and this was an important determinant of the dynamics of the epidemics.