Plague, War, and Democracy: Political Processes and the Spread of HIV

Abstract

This research examines the relationship between political processes occurring on the macro-level, such as democracy and warfare, and the HIV epidemic. Noting the contradictory nature of previous studies on war, democracy, and HIV, I implement new data and methods to examine two questions. 1) What associations are there between war and HIV? That is, does war appear to drive changes in a country's HIV prevalence?; 2) What associations are there between democratic governance and HIV prevalence? Two design aspects of this study differ from previous efforts. First, I have compiled data from both epidemiological and political science sources, and the result is a larger dataset for analysis. Second, the study conducts time-series-cross-section (TSCS) linear regression analysis, unlike most previous studies in these subject. I use three different estimation specifications and two common error-calculation procedures, to provide comparison of the empirical relevance of common TSCS practices. A significant policy relevant finding emerges. Civil and ethnic warfare have association with lower HIV prevalence, such that one could expect a country in civil conflict similar in size to the Angolan civil war to have 1.25--3.37 percent lower HIV prevalence.