Abstract
Two approaches, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Logistic Regression are used and compared to predict success or failure for first-time freshmen in the first calculus course at a medium-sized public, 4-year institution prior to Fall registration. The predictor variables are high school GPA, the number, and GPA’s of college prep mathematics courses taken in grades 9 to 12, ACT math scores, and the score on a calculus readiness test. First-time freshmen who are predicted to fail are advised to take a precalculus course prior to attempting the first calculus course. Using a prediction model for 2012 based on data from 2010 and 2011, 73.9% of students were classified correctly as either passing or failing Calculus I. Of students predicted to fail, 77% did in fact fail which was almost three times as high as the failure rate for students predicted to pass. The study also found that both precollege achievement factors, (specifically high school math GPA), and a placement test (the calculus readiness test) were significant predictors of success in Calculus I.
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