Pitching and clutch hitting in Major League Baseball: What 109 years of statistics reveal

Abstract

ObjectivesTheory on performance under pressure in sport has proposed that an athlete may be disrupted psychologically when distracted, or when explicitly monitoring too much the skills involved (Beilock & Carr, 2001; Masters, 1992). Research has also suggested that the extent to which an athlete allows pressure to impact performance may be greater for skills of increased complexity, such as hitting a baseball (Kinrade, Jackson, Ashford, & Bishop, 2010; Masters, Polman, & Hammond, 1993). Accordingly, hypotheses for the current study were that baseball hitters would be more susceptible to pressure-induced performance changes than pitchers, whose skills are less based in hand-eye coordination. Design & methodAn archival design was employed, accounting for 109 years of historical baseball data at both the team and individual levels. ResultsIn line with hypotheses, for players with a minimum of 10 postseason innings pitched in a single year (n = 835) pitching statistics were significantly correlated from regular season (less pressure) to postseason (more pressure). For those with a minimum of 20 postseason at bats in a year (n = 1731), hitting statistics were similarly correlated from season to postseason; overall, however, the weakest such relationship was batting average. For teams (n = 370), regular season pitching was expected to be the best predictor of postseason success rates; this hypothesis was supported, but only for the most recent era of baseball history (1995–2011). ConclusionsThe data imply that, while hitting should not be wholly neglected, a successful, clutch baseball team should be built primarily around pitching.