PIN7 Estimate of Infectious Disease Burden Attributable to Climate Change

Abstract

To assess the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases which have been markedly affected by climate change. Literature searches were performed using Embase®, MEDLINE®, Google Scholar, and WHO website. Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct impact on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. According to WHO, since mid-1970s, climatic changes have caused annually over 150 000 deaths and an approximately 5 million disability-adjusted life-years, mainly in developing countries. Malaria has been considered as an extremely climate-sensitive disease. A temperature rise of 2°C-3°C increases the risk of malaria by 3%-5%. Across the world, the incidence cases of malaria increased from 233 000 in 2000 to 244 000 in 2005, with highest incidence observed in Africa. The West Nile virus (WNV) disease is considered as an emerging epidemic in the US. More than 7000 neuroinvasive WNV disease cases were reported in the US from 1999-2004. Parallel to rising temperatures, the US has recorded a 41% increase in vibrio infection rate from 1996-2006. In continental Europe, a temperature rise of 6°C above the mean resulted in an estimated 30% reported cases of salmonellosis. In Russia, rising temperatures from 2001 have increased the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) by 10-fold within a decade. Korea's climatic variability has also been positively correlated with the incidence cases of malaria, Vibrio vulnificus sepsis, scrub typhus, leptospirosis, and Hantavirus infection during 2001-2008. Further, in 2009-2010, government officials of Europe have predicted that borreliosis, WNV fever, TBE, and salmonellosis are likely to be majorly affected by climate change. Accelerating climate change carries a profound threat for the increased burden of infectious diseases worldwide. To attain the maximum disease prevention, an understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases must be developed in order to protect vulnerable populations, rather than focussing on single agent of disease.