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Abstract
Bacterial conjunctivitis is a common ocular infection associated with contagious spread and outbreaks. Besifloxacin is a topical ophthalmic fluoroquinolone indicated for bacterial conjunctivitis. We have developed a dynamic transmission model which produced a country level estimate for the decrease in case numbers during an outbreak. A simple epidemic Sensitive-Infectious-Sensitive (SIS) model was used to estimate case numbers during an outbreak over a 30-day period. Model parameters were based on published in-vivo and in-vitro data of bacterial eradication rates and shorter time-to-bactericidal activity (2-8 times shorter than moxifloxacin and ciprofloxacin). Two scenarios were used for this estimation: 1) Besifloxacin was assumed to stop contagious spread 0.6 days earlier than comparative antibiotics, and 2) Besifloxacin was assumed to prevent contagious spread 0.5 days earlier than comparative antibiotics. Under the baseline assumptions, the number of new cases were estimated as 3 new cases/1,000 persons over 30 days. In Scenario 1, the number of new cases was found to decrease to 1.8 cases/1,000 persons over 30 days. In Scenario 2, the number of new cases decreased to 1.5/1,000 persons in 30 days. When these estimates were applied to the total number of bacterial conjunctivitis cases over 1 year in Turkey, even if besifloxacin was assumed to be used in only 1% of cases, it was found that 34,518 and 39,368 of bacterial conjunctivitis cases would be prevented according to Scenario 1 and 2, respectively. The SIS model showed besifloxacin could prevent a significant number of new bacterial conjunctivitis cases in Turkey by potentially eradicating bacteria faster compared to other antibiotics which could potentially lead to savings in healthcare resource utilization.
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