Piecewise linear modelling and change-point analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia

Abstract

In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control Order (MCO). We study the direct effects of MCO on the course of epidemic by analyzing the cumulative and daily infection cases of COVID-19 up to 31 December 2020 in Malaysia and its states using piecewise linear regression and segment neighborhoods algorithm of change-point analysis, respectively. Through piecewise regression on nationwide cases, MCO were likely to almost flatten the epidemic curve in just one month after it was first initiated. While for stateswise cases, the average length of series of concave downward is six months before it turn to concave upward, indicating the period of which deceleration of new cases can be expected. However, the starting of this wave of COVID-19 can be relatively vary for three months in different states and federal territories. Together with change-point analysis on daily cases, the statewise epidemic phases could be subdivided into two to four regimes, whereby the majority of phase transitions fall in April and last quarter of 2020. Overall, the statistical modelling shows that the immediate effect of MCO appears to be effective.