Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity and modified Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity for the mortality prediction among nonagenarians undergoing emergency surgery

Abstract

BackgroundThe aims of this study were to determine the outcomes of emergency abdominal surgery in patients aged ≥90 y and to analyze the role of Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and modified POSSUM in predicting their morbidity and mortality. Materials and methodsPatients aged ≥90 y who underwent emergency abdominal surgery from January 2011 to December 2014 were enrolled in this study. ResultsA total of 36 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria. The mortality and morbidity rates in the study group were 8.3% and 61.1%, respectively. Overall observed-to-expected morbidity ratio calculated by POSSUM and modified POSSUM were 0.83 (χ2 = 32.189, P = 0.6045) and 0.97 (χ2 = 33.915, P = 0.7398), respectively. Both models demonstrated a good fit for prediction of morbidity. Overall observed-to-expected mortality ratios calculated by POSSUM and modified POSSUM were 0.26 (χ2 = 12.217, P = 0.2013) and 0.20 (χ2 = 12.217, P = 0.0936), respectively. ConclusionsBoth POSSUM and modified POSSUM accurately predicted morbidity in the setting of emergency abdominal surgery in nonagenarians.