Physics-informed deep Monte Carlo quantile regression method for interval multilevel Bayesian Network-based satellite circuit board reliability analysis

Abstract

Temperature field reconstruction is essential for analyzing the reliability of a high-density functionally integrated satellite circuit board (HFI-SCB). As a representative deep learning model, the deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) is a powerful tool for reconstructing the HFI-SCB temperature field. However, DCNN needs a lot of labeled data to learn its parameters, which is contrary to the fact that actual satellite engineering can only acquire noisy unlabeled data. Thus, this paper proposes an unsupervised method, i.e., the physics-informed deep Monte Carlo quantile regression method, for reconstructing the HFI-SCB temperature field and quantifying the data uncertainty caused by sensor noise. The proposed method combines a DCNN with known physics knowledge to reconstruct an accurate HFI-SCB temperature field using only monitoring point temperatures. Besides, the proposed method can quantify the data uncertainty by the Monte Carlo quantile regression. Based on the reconstructed temperature field and the quantified data uncertainty, this paper builds an interval multilevel Bayesian Network to analyze the HFI-SCB reliability. Two case studies are used to validate the proposed method.