Abstract
We applied a new version of physics-based earthquake simulator upon a seismogenic model of the Italian seismicity derived from the latest version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS). We elaborated appropriately for their use within the simulator all fault systems identified in the study area. We obtained synthetic catalogs spanning hundreds of thousands of years. The resulting synthetic seismic catalogs exhibit typical magnitude, space and time features that are comparable to those obtained by real observations. A typical aspect of the observed seismicity is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple main shocks of similar magnitude. Special attention was devoted to verifying whether the simulated catalogs include this notable aspect, by the use of an especially developed computer code. We found that the phenomenon of Coulomb stress transfer from causative to receiving source patches during an earthquake rupture has a critical role in the behavior of seismicity patterns in the simulated catalogs. We applied the simulator to the seismicity of the northern and central Apennines and compared the resulting synthetic catalog with the observed seismicity for the period 1650–2020. The result of this comparison supports the hypothesis that the occurrence of sequences containing multiple mainshocks is not just a casual circumstance.
Highlights
A typical aspect of the observed seismicity in the northern and central Apennines, and in the whole Italian region more generally, is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple, large mainshocks. An example of this behavior is the quantitative model “Every Earthquake Precursory According to Scale” (EEPAS), applied by Rhoades and Evison [1,2,3]
Building upon a previous paper (Console et al [7]), in which we examined the aspect of multiple mainshocks in central Italy, in this study we aim at verifying if a synthetic catalog reproduces this kind of earthquake clustering
A computer code was developed for counting the number of multiplets detected applying such a definition to any earthquake catalog
Summary
A typical aspect of the observed seismicity in the northern and central Apennines, and in the whole Italian region more generally, is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple, large mainshocks An example of this behavior is the quantitative model “Every Earthquake Precursory According to Scale” (EEPAS), applied by Rhoades and Evison [1,2,3]. Having tried three choices for the two main free parameters present in the algorithm, for a total of nine different combinations, we chose one of them by a criterion based on the analysis of the multiplets in the synthetic catalog of 100,000 years Some features of this preferred simulated catalog are compared in several ways with a real set of observations lasting only 370 years in the same seismogenic area. We show that the use of simulators allows testing hypotheses of seismogenic models in a way that is not possible on the basis of real observations, due to lack of completeness and homogeneity of these observations in the long-term
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