Physical processes and feedbacks obscuring the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet holds a vital role in Earth's climate system and its changes have global implications for the climate, sea level, coastal ecosystems and population. Under the ongoing anthropogenic warming, the ice sheet's future, however, is obscured by a number of processes with poorly-constrained key parameters in numerical models, and climate feedbacks that are not fully understood. Here, a set of selected physical processes and feedbacks governing future changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet are discussed, including processes critical for the stability of ice shelves and the marine-based portions of the ice sheet, processes regulating the warming rates of air and ocean in the southern polar region, and ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with the freshwater flux from Antarctica. The degree of uncertainty in projected changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be reduced by refinement of the numerical schemes for these processes in fully-coupled ice sheet-climate models, helping reveal a clearer picture of future Antarctica and its role in the fast-changing global environment.