Physical hazard and risk assessment in Jamaica, West Indies

Abstract

Abstract Jamaica is prone to both earthquakes and hurricanes. The cities of Port Royal and Kingston respectively were destroyed by earthquakes in 1692 and 1907, whilst the island lies within the Caribbean hurricane belt with recent devastation being caused by a tropical depression in 1979 and Hurricane Allen in 1981. The Geological Survey of Jamaica has been actively involved in land use planning for many years. The recent contributions are briefly reviewed, particularly with respect to natural hazards such as landslips and flooding. The problems of preparing risk assessment maps from a weak data base are discussed. Preliminary Earthquake and Tropical Cyclone hazard maps which were prepared for the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation are presented as examples of the approach taken. The method, of necessity, was based on largely subjective assessments of ground materials and levels of risk. The preliminary maps were intended to provide general guidelines for planning and development and to prepare the way for further studies. The preparation of detailed engineering design guides was regarded as the logical development of this work and, to illustrate this, some initial results of a subsequent hydrological study of flood flow characteristics and flood prediction techniques are presented.