Physical characteristics of Eurasian winter temperature variability

Abstract

Despite the on-going global warming, recent winters in Eurasian mid-latitudes were much colder than average. In an attempt to better understand the physical characteristics for cold Eurasian winters, major sources of variability in surface air temperature (SAT) are investigated based on cyclostationary EOF analysis. The two leading modes of SAT variability represent the effect of Arctic amplification (AA) and the Arctic oscillation (AO), respectively. These two modes are distinct in terms of the physical characteristics, including surface energy fluxes and tropospheric circulations, and result in significantly different winter SAT patterns over the Eurasian continent. The AA-related SAT anomalies are dipolar with warm Arctic, centered at the Barents–Kara Seas, and cold East Asia. In contrast, the negative AO-related SAT anomalies are characterized by widespread cold anomalies in Northern Eurasia. Relative importance of the AA and the negative AO contributions to cold Eurasian winters is sensitive to the region of interest.