Abstract
ABSTRACTBackgroundStudies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature. We estimated preventable premature deaths from NCDs (diabetes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and breast and colon cancers) in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity (i) to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels; (ii) reaching the physical activity recommendation; (iii) reducing insufficient physical activity by 10%; and (iv) eliminating the gender differences in physical activity.MethodsPreventable fractions were estimated using data from a nationally representative survey, relative risks from a meta-analysis and number of premature deaths (30–69 years) from the Brazilian Mortality Information System.ResultsPhysical activity could potentially avoid up to 16 700 premature deaths from NCDs in Brazil, corresponding to 5.75 and 3.23% of premature deaths from major NCDs and of all-causes, respectively. Other scenarios suggested the following impact on premature deaths: reaching physical activity recommendation (5000 or 1.74% of major NCDs); 10% reduction in insufficient physical activity (500 or 0.17% of major NCDs); eliminating gender differences in physical activity (1000 or 0.33% of major NCDs).ConclusionsPhysical activity may play an important role to reduce premature deaths from NCD in Brazil.
Highlights
Studies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature
We used the compendium of physical activities to assign metabolic equivalent of task (MET) considering the most frequent type of recreational physical activity as well as the average MET for each of the other domains of physical activity (Table S1).[15]
Physical activity could potentially avoid up to 16 700 premature deaths from NCDs, which correspond to 5.75% of premature deaths from major NCDs and 3.23% of premature deaths from all-causes per year in Brazil
Summary
Studies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature. We estimated preventable premature deaths from NCDs (diabetes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and breast and colon cancers) in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity (i) to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels; (ii) reaching the physical activity recommendation; (iii) reducing insufficient physical activity by 10%; and (iv) eliminating the gender differences in physical activity
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