Abstract
It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas. We used viral gene sequence data sampled from Peru to test this source-sink model for a Latin American country. Viruses were obtained during 2010-2012 from influenza surveillance cohorts in Cusco, Tumbes, Puerto Maldonado, and Lima. Specimens positive for influenza A(H3N2) virus were randomly selected and underwent hemagglutinin sequencing and phylogeographic analyses. Analysis of 389 hemagglutinin sequences from Peru and 2,192 global sequences demonstrated interseasonal extinction of Peruvian lineages. Extensive mixing occurred with global clades, but some spatial structure was observed at all sites; this structure was weakest in Lima and Puerto Maldonado, indicating that these locations may experience greater viral traffic. The broad diversity and co-circulation of many simultaneous lineages of H3N2 virus in Peru suggests that this country should not be overlooked as a potential source for novel pandemic strains.
Highlights
It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas
Prospective community-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance cohorts were established in multiple regions of Peru, providing a unique opportunity to examine the epidemiology of human influenza virus [15]
Our study objectives were to determine whether 1) a source–sink influenza dynamic exists within Peru, including the existence of genetically diverse hubs and virus lineage persistence between seasons; 2) Peru could act as a global source for influenza virus lineages that could seed temperate regions; and 3) influenza virus is circulating within Peru in a closed system
Summary
It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas. In the source–sink model, countries have putative tropical sources of influenza characterized by year-round (or multiannual) transmission, local persistence of influenza lineages, and relatively high genetic diversity. It is postulated, that influenza lineages migrate and seed seasonal epidemics in cooler temperate regions, where they experience interseasonal extinction [5]. Peru’s diverse climates make it an ideal location to test aspects of the source–sink model in Latin America, because some tropical areas in Peru are known to experience year-round influenza activity [14]. We sought to compare the spatial dynamics of influenza A(H3N2) virus across the 4 climatically and demographically diverse Peruvian sites
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