Phylogeography and Evolutionary Dynamics of Tobacco Curly Shoot Virus

Abstract

Tobacco curly shoot virus (TbCSV), a begomovirus, causes significant economic losses in tobacco and tomato crops across East, Southeast, and South Asia. Despite its agricultural importance, the evolutionary dynamics and emergence process of TbCSV remain poorly understood. This study analyzed the phylodynamics of TbCSV by examining its nucleotide sequences of the coat protein (CP) gene collected between 2000 and 2022. Using various combinations of priors, Bayes factor comparisons identified heterochronous datasets (3 × 100 million chains) generated from a strict molecular clock and Bayesian skyline tree priors as the most robust. The mean substitution rate of the CP gene was estimated at 6.50 × 10−4 substitutions/site/year (95% credibility interval: 4.74 × 10−4–8.50 × 10−4). TbCSV was inferred to have diverged around 1920 CE (95% credibility interval: 1887–1952), with its most probable origin in South Asia. These findings provide valuable insights for the phylogeography and evolutionary dynamics of TbCSV, and contribute to a broader understanding of begomovirus epidemiology.