PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 4: Prediction of plasma concentration–time profiles in human from in vivo preclinical data by using the Wajima approach

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Wajima allometry (Css‐MRT) approach published in the literature, which is used to predict the human plasma concentration–time profiles from a scaling of preclinical species data. A diverse and blinded dataset of 108 compounds from PhRMA member companies was used in this evaluation. The human intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) pharmacokinetics (PK) data were available for 18 and 107 drugs, respectively. Three different scenarios were adopted for prediction of human PK profiles. In the first scenario, human clearance (CL) and steady‐state volume of distribution (Vss) were predicted by unbound fraction corrected intercept method (FCIM) and Øie–Tozer (OT) approaches, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR)–based approaches (TSrat‐dog) based on compound descriptors together with rat and dog data were utilized in the second scenario. Finally, in the third scenario, CL and Vss were predicted using the FCIM and Jansson approaches, respectively. For the prediction of oral pharmacokinetics, the human bioavailability and absorption rate constant were assumed as the average of preclinical species. Various statistical techniques were used for assessing the accuracy of the simulation scenarios. The human CL and Vss were predicted within a threefold error range for about 75% of the i.v. drugs. However, the accuracy in predicting key p.o. PK parameters appeared to be lower with only 58% of simulations falling within threefold of observed parameters. The overall ability of the Css‐MRT approach to predict the curve shape of the profile was in general poor and ranged between low to medium level of confidence for most of the predictions based on the selected criteria. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 100:4111–4126, 2011