Abstract
Chronic diseases impose significant financial and health burdens on the society. The aim of this study is to project the health and financial burdens of chronic diseases from societal and employer perspectives until 2025, and estimate the potential benefits of population health initiatives and medical advancements. The baseline population was synthesized from large national survey databases including National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), American Community Survey (ACS), Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), and National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS) using a propensity matching algorithm. A microsimulation model was constructed in SAS to simulate the prevalence, incidence, progression, and potential treatment effects of more than 10 chronic diseases including asthma, COPD, osteoporosis, cancers, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases. Each individual’s demographics, biometrics, diagnosis and treatment status, and health history were used to predict disease incidence, progression, and mortality based on published clinical evidence. The baseline scenario assumes current population behavior and treatment states continue into the future. The ‘optimistic’ scenario assumes more people quit smoking and drinking, more physically active population, higher treatment adherence, timely diagnosis, slower cost growth, and insurance coverage expansion. If current trends continue, chronic diseases will result in 1.4 trillion in direct medical costs and 802 million work days in absenteeism in 2025. In the same year 210 million people will have at least 1 chronic disease. Treating the chronic conditions will consume 35 cents out of every dollar spent on healthcare in the following 10 years. The ‘optimistic’ scenario would result in 51 million fewer diagnoses and 780 billion in total direct medical cost savings by 2025. Costs associated with chronic diseases constitute a significant portion of all healthcare spending. Investing in population health initiatives could effectively reduce the burden 10 years from now.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
