Photovoltaics in the Swedish power system?

Abstract

SYNOPSIS The Swedish Dower system is today based on hydro power (production 65 TWh/year) and nuclear power (production 55 TWh/year from 1986). Small amount of oil and gas is used for power production during peak periods. The Swedish Parliament decided in 1980, after a consultative referendum, that all nuclear reactors will be closed between 1997 and 2010. In that perspective several new technologies are possible to use for power production. One interesting possibility is photovoltaic power production. The objective of the paper is to analyse conditions for the use of photovoltaics in the Swedish power system. The cost for electricity from photovoltaic power plants is calculated from cost goals in the United States photovoltaic development programme. Different costs during construction and operation are added. The capital costs are calculated for a real discount rate of 4% and the lifetime for the plant is assumed to be 30 years. The receipts for photovoltaics are calculated from long run marginal revenues (power values) at year 2010. The calculations give following results. If the lower cost goal for late 1990s is achieved, then electricity from photovoltaic power plants in Sweden will cost 3.6 pence/kwh (40 öre/kwh). The higher cost goal for 1990s results in an energy cost of 4.6 pence/kwh (51 öre/kWh). The cost for electricity from photovoltaic power plants will be the same as the cost for electricity from coal-fired power plants if the coal price rises from UK £ l.3/GJ during 1983 to UK £3.4–4.5/GJ around the decade 2000–2010.