Photovoltaic technology assessment based on cumulative prospect theory and hybrid information from sustainable perspective

Abstract

Solar energy is clean and inexhaustible, and photovoltaic technology is the main means to exploit it. Considering that sustainability is increasingly important, five commercially used photovoltaic technologies were assessed from sustainable perspective. To properly assess them, a new method based on cumulative prospect theory and hybrid information was proposed. Applying cumulative prospect theory, decision makers’ irrational nature was reproduced in assessment. The application of hybrid information ensured the quantification and comprehensiveness of assessment. Mutual distance maximization method was proposed to objectively calculate attribute weights. The method showed stronger practicality, better sensitivity, and wider applicability through sensitivity and comparison analyses. The assessment result shows that single-crystalline silicon is the most sustainable one with total utility value of −0.2675, followed by cadmium telluride with the value of −0.2724. Meanwhile, the priority switches when the risk aversion coefficient is counted within [1,2]. Under different expectations, the ranking results vary because of the differences between attributes. By adjusting the weight ratio of sustainability attributes from 0% to 100%, the ranking of single-crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon decrease, while cadmium telluride and copper indium gallium selenium increase. Thus, as people consider increasing importance to sustainability, more attention should be paid to sustainability of PV technologies.