Photovoltaic output power estimation model based on multi-meteorological variable dimension reduction and improved variational mode decomposition algorithm

Abstract

ABSTRACT The instability and intermittence of photovoltaic (PV) power generation challenge the large-scale integration of PV power generation systems into the power grid and the development of energy storage systems. To accurately predict the output power of PV power generation, a power prediction model based on the optimized variational modal decomposition (OVMD)-adaptive t-distribution sparrow search algorithm (tSSA)-least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm was built. The performance of the model was then verified by three-year meteorological data and real-time PV output power data of two different climatic regions in China. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of this model were less than 3.1% and 0.40, respectively, and the determination coefficient (R2) of this model was greater than 95%. Moreover, the prediction accuracy was greatly improved compared to models based on the support vector machine (SVM), LSSVM, variational modal decomposition (VMD)-LSSVM, and VMD-SSA-LSSVM algorithms. Finally, by performing dimension reduction of meteorological variables related to PV output power, the performance of the proposed OVMD-tSSA-LSSVM model was further improved.