Abstract

Phosphorus (P) loss to freshwater is a key driver of eutrophication, and understanding the scale and spatial distribution of potential P sources is a key pre-requisite for implementing policies for P management to minimize environmental impacts. Soil test P (STP) is a useful indicator of the accumulation of P in soils, but these data are not readily available for most agricultural land in Canada, so the cumulative P balance (P inputs as manure or fertilizer minus removal of P in crops) is calculated as a proxy for this value. Cumulative P balance is an important calculation within the indicator of risk of water contamination by P, so allocations of manure and fertilizer P to cropland were updated within the calculation of P balance, and for Ontario, data from 1961 to 1980 were added to account for P applications during that period. The STP concentrations were calculated from the resulting cumulative P balances. When compared with reported STP concentrations, the predicted concentrations showed a statistically significant regression at the national (R2 = 78%) and provincial scale (Ontario, R2 = 36%; Prince Edward Island, R2 = 36%; Manitoba, R2 = 72%; British Columbia, R2 = 40%). There was significant variation in the cumulative P balance across Canada, with the highest values corresponding with areas of high livestock density, whereas large zones of P deficit were detected across the Prairies.

Highlights

  • This paper presents the results of an updated methodology for calculating the cumulative P balance since the paper by van Bochove et al (2012), and extends the analysis for an additional five years to 2011

  • The cumulative P balance was calculated at the Soil Landscape of Canada (SLC) scale as the sum of estimated manure and mineral fertilizer P applications minus the P removed in the harvested portion of the crop, accumulated over the time period from 1976 to 2011

  • The allocation of mineral fertilizer P according to crop requirements and modified by relative fertilizer expenditures assumes that all fertilizer decisions are completely rational, which we know is not the case for any purchasing decision

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Summary

Introduction

Phosphorus (P) loss to surface freshwater is a key driver of environmental degradation (Jarvie et al 2013; Scavia et al 2014), including blooms of both harmful (e.g. microcystis) (Conroy et al 2014; Simic et al 2017; Steffen et al 2014) and nuisance (e.g. cladophora) algae (Howell and Dove 2017), along with contributing to the development of hypoxic zones that impact fish habitat (Bouffard et al 2013; Scavia et al 2014). One of the key source parameters for P loss from agricultural runoff is the accumulation of P in the soil, as measured with an agronomic soil test (Sharpley et al 2002; Vadas et al 2005; Wang et al 2015). This directly influences the concentration of dissolved P in runoff (Wang et al 2010), the concentration of bio-available particulate P (BAPP) (Sharpley 1985), and indirectly, the accumulation of P in plant biomass that could be released over-winter from frozen plant tissue (Maltais-Landry and Frossard 2015; Roberson et al 2007; Sharpley and Smith 1989). The original calculations by van Bochove et al (2012), assumed that manure P displaced mineral fertilizer P from land application, which generated zero fertilizer P applications for some areas despite the

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