Phoenix–A model-based human reliability analysis methodology: Data sources and quantitative analysis procedure

Abstract

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) has continuously evolved to adopt more advanced human error probability (HEP) quantification approaches. Despite several efforts and enhancements of HRA methods, many still present limitations. Phoenix HRA Methodology aims to overcome known issues by incorporating strong elements of current HRA good practices, leveraging lessons learned from empirical studies and existing and emerging HRA methods' features. Phoenix models performance influencing factors (PIFs) and their impact on failure modes through Bayesian Networks (BBNs). Despite increased use in HRA applications, the large amount of data BBNs may require is still challenging. Thus, to populate Phoenix BBNs, several data sources were combined, including other HRA methods, expert judgment, and operating experience. The paper discusses Phoenix's quantitative analysis process, the data sources used to estimate the BBN parameters, and the applied data aggregation method. It further provides the quantitative analysis procedure guide with the significant steps and sub-steps an HRA analyst requires to implement this Phoenix methodology phase. Furthermore, the method for mapping the data to Phoenix BBN parameters and for aggregating the data considering non-homogeneous data sources can be further used for other HRA methods that apply BBNs or other applications.