Phenomenological Assessment of the Link between the Economic Security Components of the Temporarily Occupied Donetskand Luhansk Regions, and Ukraine

Abstract

Integral values of economic security of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in 2010-2019 were calculated (for 2012-2017 the integral index of economic security of the region decreased from 0,79 to 0,49 (by 0,30 p.p.)), while the decrease in the level of economic security of Donetsk region was not as steep (from 0,78 to 0,59 (by 0,19 p.p.). Using the author’s methodological approach, it is proved that the deterioration of the economic security parameters of Donetsk and Luhansk regions caused a decrease in the level of economic security of Ukraine. This is confirmed by the results of pairwise correlation analysis of the strength of the relationship between the components of economic security (the growth rate of component indices) of Lugansk and Lugansk regions and Ukraine (value of component indices), as well as the formation of multiple regression, where the dependent variable was the integral value of economic security of Ukraine, and independent - the growth rate of component indices of economic security of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The formed equations of multiple regression show a high density of correlation and, respectively, the influence on Ukraine’s economic security of such components of the economic security of Lugansk region as macroeconomic (regression coefficient 0,08), food (0,41), investment and innovation (0,16) (direct impact) and demographic (minus 6,3) (reverse impact), the influence of such components of the economic security of Donetsk region as the financial (0,64), the production (0,64) and the foreign trade (0,47) (direct influence).