Abstract
A phenology simulation model was developed for Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister). The components for the model were a degree-day immigration flight model of overwintered adults, temperature-dependent developmental models of each stage, survival rates of each stage, and an adult oviposition model. A degree-day model for immigration flight of overwintered adults was developed with blacklight trap catch data by a Weibull function. Laboratory experiments using seven constant temperature regimens were conducted to determine the effect of temperature on the development of immature stages. Developmental rates of each immature stage fit well to a linear model. Distribution of developmental time for each immature stage was successfully modeled against physiological age by a Weibull function. To determine the temperature effect on longevity, fecundity, and survival of female adults, laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted. The adult developmental rate (1/median longevity) was described by a linear model. The oviposition model was developed incorporating the three components of average total fecundity, cumulative oviposition rate function, and survival rate function. The simulation model predicted the time of peak occurrences of life stages of S. lurida well.
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