Phenological responses of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) to climate warming in China based on long-term historical data

Abstract

It is well accepted that the phenology of insects whose life activities are closely related to temperature is changing in response to global climate warming. To investigate the impacts of climate warming on the phenology of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) across large temporal and spatial scales, this study collected historical data on the occurrence and population dynamic of this pest in China, and systematically explored its phenological responses. The results showed a delayed trend for the dates of first occurrence, end occurrence, population initial growth, and population peak of B. dorsalis in China during 40 years, and the changes of the latter two phenological parameters were significant. The mean temperature in spring and summer were the key climatic factors affecting the occurrence and population growth of B. dorsalis in China, respectively. Moreover, the B. dorsalis data in eastern, southern, central, and southwestern China showed spatial heterogeneity of phenological responses to climate warming at a regional scale. B. dorsalis phenology and their changing patterns with climate warming varied by geographical location. This study provides valuable information for future monitoring, prediction, and prevention of the oriental fruit fly in the context of climate warming.