Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea.

Minkyung Kim,Hakyung Lee,Sojeong Lee,Sangdon Lee

doi:10.3390/ijerph18031086

Minkyung Kim, Hakyung Lee + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18031086

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Abstract

The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.

Highlights

Between 1880 and 2012, the average global surface temperature rose by 0.85 ◦ C, while between 1912 and 2017, the average surface temperature in South Korea rose by about1.8 ◦ C [1]
A positive slope value for a species means that its phenological event became delayed during the observation period, while a negative slope value means that its event became advanced
Using long-term phenological data observed at 61 locations in Korea, this study investigated phenological phenomena by dividing them into three ecological functional species groups that interact in the ecosystem

Summary

Introduction

Between 1880 and 2012, the average global surface temperature rose by 0.85 ◦ C, while between 1912 and 2017, the average surface temperature in South Korea rose by about1.8 ◦ C [1]. Compared to the global and Korean temperature growth rates, it is clear that. Korea has a higher temperature growth rate. Comparing the rate of change in Korea’s surface temperature over time, the trend of temperature increase appears to be stronger since 1973 [1]. The risk of future extinction due to climate change is expected to accelerate as the global temperatures rises [4]. If future temperature changes are moderate, about a quarter of species are predicted to disappear [5], which is a larger extinction rate than is expected due to habitat destruction [6]. The possibility of future species extinction in Korea caused by climate change should be taken seriously

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