Abstract
An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt. In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.
Highlights
2019 Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) has given rise to an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China since December 20191,2
Estimations of the transmission risk and the epidemic trend of COVID-19 are of great importance because these can arouse the vigilance of the policy makers, health professionals, and the whole society so that enough resources would be mobilized in a speedy and efficient way for both control and treatment
We estimated the number of infections using SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model under two assumptions of Rt (Rt maintaining to be >1 or Rt gradually decreasing to
Summary
2019 Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) has given rise to an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China since December 20191,2. World Health Organization (WHO) has named the disease Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)[3]. Most cases from the initial cluster had an epidemiological link to the Huanan. As of 17 February 2020, a cumulative total of 72,436 confirmed cases (including 11,741 currently severe cases), 6242 currently suspect cases, a cumulative total of 1868 deaths and 12,552 cases discharged from hospital were reported by National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NHC) in mainland China[7]. The significant increases in the number of confirmed cases in China and abroad led to the announcement made by WHO on 30 January that the event has already constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern[8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
