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Abstract
Abstract. This short paper presents phase and coherence data from the cross-wavelet transform applied on longitudinally separated very high frequency (VHF) equatorial ionospheric scintillation observations over Christmas Island. The phase and coherence analyses were employed on a pair of scintillation observations, namely, the east-looking and west-looking VHF scintillation monitors at Christmas Island. Our analysis includes 3 years of peak season scintillation data from 2008, 2009 (low solar activity), and 2011 (moderate solar activity). In statistically significant and high spectral coherence regions of the cross-wavelet transform, scintillation observations from the east-looking monitor lead those from the west-looking monitor by about 20 to 60 (40 ± 20) min (most frequent lead times). Using several years (seasons and solar cycle) of lead (or lag) and coherence information of the cross-wavelet transform, we envisage construction of a probability model for forecasting scintillation in the nighttime equatorial ionosphere.
Highlights
Equatorial spread F (ESF) comprises plasma density irregularity processes occurring at night in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere
They have applied the phase and coherence calculations on two pairs of scintillation observations: (1) São Luís and Rio Branco, and (2) Alta Floresta and Huancayo
If L-band scintillation happens over São Luís (Alta Floresta), there is a 95 % likelihood that scintillation will occur to the west over Rio Branco (Huancayo) after ∼ 2 to 3 h suggesting that a forecast can be made ahead of scintillation occurrences
Summary
Equatorial spread F (ESF) comprises plasma density irregularity processes occurring at night in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere. In a recent publication, Shume and Mannucci (2013) have suggested that phase and coherence of the cross-wavelet transform of longitudinally separated L-band scintillation observations over equatorial South America can be developed into scintillation and ESF forecast instruments. They have applied the phase and coherence calculations on two pairs of scintillation observations: (1) São Luís and Rio Branco (whose longitudes are separated by 23◦), and (2) Alta Floresta and Huancayo (whose longitudes are separated by 21◦). If L-band scintillation happens over São Luís (Alta Floresta), there is a 95 % likelihood that scintillation will occur to the west over Rio Branco (Huancayo) after ∼ 2 to 3 h suggesting that a forecast can be made ahead of scintillation occurrences
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