Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures: a modelling study.

Xiaomei Feng, ,Fengqin Zhang,School Of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China ,Zhen Jin,Lei Wang,Shanxi Applied Mathematics Center, Taiyuan 030006, China ,Kai Wang,Xia Wang,Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China ,Lan Zou,Jing Chen

doi:10.3934/mbe.2020205

Abstract

Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.

Highlights

An outbreak of atypical pneumonia was first detected and reported in Wuhan, China on December, 2019
On February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) established COVID-19 standing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 as the name of the disease caused by SARS-Cov-2
The South Korea government announced that the whole country enter the ”war” against COVID-19 and the detection speed will be significantly improved

Summary

Introduction

An outbreak of atypical pneumonia was first detected and reported in Wuhan, China on December, 2019. Within weeks of its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2), was identified as the cause of these pneumonia cases. On February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) established COVID-19 standing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 as the name of the disease caused by SARS-Cov-2. The virus subsequently spread to all provinces of China and the WHO declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020. The virus has spread to more than 120 countries and the WHO on March 11, 2020 declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The level of concern in Europe, Iran, USA, South Korea and Japan increased due to a surging of cases recently. South Korea had issued this infectious disease crisis alert to its highest level on February 23, 2020

Methods

Results

Conclusion